The Indian rupee, swaying through multiple headwinds, tiding over global trade disruptions and massive foreign fund outlfows, is unlikely to arrest its descent until tariff impact overhangs, notwithstanding robust domestic macroeconomic tailwinds. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which sees the rupee's depreciation as a silver bullet to offset the tariff shock, expects the currency to find its stable course once India reaches a trade deal with its largest trading partner, the US.
So far this year, the rupee has fallen by 4.2 per cent, the worst among its Asian peers.
The rupee tumbled 3 per cent against the US dollar in 2024 as concerns over slower economic growth and a stronger greenback in global markets weighed, but it was among the least volatile currencies in the world and the headwinds may be less intense in the coming year.
Gold prices tumbled by Rs 3,350 to Rs 72,300 per 10 grams in the local market in New Delhi on Tuesday amid subdued demand by jewellers after the government announced the customs duty cut on the yellow metal and silver to 6 per cent.
Gold, a safe-haven bet, is likely to continue its record-smashing journey in the New Year, rising to Rs 85,000 per 10 grams and even Rs 90,000 level in domestic markets if geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties continue.
The rupee depreciated by 9 paise and settled at its all-time low level of 83.13 against the US dollar on Wednesday, weighed down by a surge in crude oil prices and strong American currency. Forex traders said the Indian rupee depreciated as the US dollar rose to the highest levels in six months. Moreover, elevated crude oil prices also weighed on rupee.
The stock of State Bank of India (SBI) may re-rate soon, believe analysts, if the lender manages to safeguard its net interest margin (NIM) going ahead. This, along with controlled credit costs, should aid the outlook of the stock which has been underperforming the markets for some time now. "We believe delivery of growth on guided lines, sustenance of NIMs near current levels, and controlled asset quality parameters aiding controlled credit costs should lead to strong profitability and drive re-rating of the stock," said analysts at JM Financial.
The country's foreign exchange reserves crossed the $600 billion mark for the first time after increasing by $6.842 billion in the week ended June 4, RBI data showed on Friday. The reserves surged to a record $605.008 billion in the reporting week, helped by a rise in foreign currency assets (FCA), a major component of the overall reserves, as per weekly data by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). In the previous week ended May 28, 2021, the reserves had swelled by $5.271 billion to $598.165 billion.
After selling dollars for the past few months, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may take a hands-off approach before its annual account closing by not trying to prop up the rupee as geopolitical tensions show signs of stabilising with global crude oil prices easing from its $140 peak. The central bank was a net buyer of dollars between April and September, and then turned a net seller in the following months, the data released by the RBI showed. The RBI continued to be a net buyer of $36.6 billion in this fiscal year - between April and January. In 2020-21, it purchased $68 billion on a net basis.
The reserves rose to $501.70 billion helped by a whopping rise in foreign currency assets, the latest data from the Reserve Bank of India.
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Rupee ends flat after hitting 9-1/2 month low.
The Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) on Thursday said it believes that India-US bilateral economic ties would be a high priority for President Joe Biden-led administration in America. "The Indian industry feels that with President Biden and Prime Minister (Narendra) Modi at the helm, the two countries would play a strong role in re-shaping the global economic agenda together," CII president Uday Kotak said. Congratulating Biden on assuming charge as the 46th President of the US, Kotak said, "President Biden's experience in re-building the US economy during the Great Recession would help strengthen the US and global economic recovery in the aftermath of the pandemic."
If there was one event that made the month of August stand out, it was a strengthening of the dollar index to levels last seen only 20 years ago, as the Federal Reserve dispelled all doubts about its intention to continue raising interest rates. Predictably, most currencies suffered against the US unit, with the bulk of the losers belonging to the emerging markets pack. Amid the volatility, the rupee, however, has displayed significant resilience and fared much better than most of its peer currencies.
Increased demand from oil importers for the American currency kept pressure on the rupee
The Fed's decision on tapering its monthly $85 billion bond-buying programme is expected later on Wednesday.
The rupee had gained seven paise to close at 61.15 on Friday on suspected RBI intervention in the forex market.
Forex dealers said apart from month-end demand for the American currency from importers, dollar's gains against other currencies overseas amid US data showing more-than-expected economic growth in the second quarter also put pressure on the local unit.
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Forex dealers said besides fresh demand from importers for the American unit, a lower opening in the domestic equity market as well as decline in industrial production growth to 4-month low of 0.5 per cent in July, put pressure on the rupee.
The view among the regulator and the government is that the currency is overvalued
Omkeshwar Singh, Head, Rank MF, a mutual fund investment platform, answers your queries.
Omkeshwar Singh, Head, Rank MF, a mutual fund investment platform, answers your queries.
RBI will review the monetary policy again on September 29.
The rupee appreciated further on Thursday, adding 106 paise to 66.01 against the dollar, after steps taken by new Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan to attract US currency inflows boosted market sentiment.
The rupee on Wednesday snapped its two days of losses and edged up two paise to end at 59.27 against the dollar following late selling of the US currency by exporters.
Experts believe it can touch 63 against the dollar
The rupee appreciated by 0.27 per cent in June against the dollar.
Omkeshwar Singh, Head, Rank MF, a mutual fund investment platform, answers your queries.
Increased demand from oil importers for the American currency and a weak opening in the domestic stock market also put pressure on the rupee.
May touch 64/$ due to foreign flows slowing down
The rupee's stability in the last 12 to 18 months made corporates reduce hedging
Omkeshwar Singh, head, Rank MF, a mutual fund investment platform, answers your queries.
Ajit Mishra, vice president, research, Religare Broking, answers your queries.
India's foreign exchange reserves are at an all-time high.
Wondering if mutual fund investments can help you make you enough money for your retirement and child's marriage? Omkeshwar Singh, Head, Rank MF, a mutual fund investment platform, answers your queries.
Sharp swings likely in equity, forex and bond markets.
Ajit Mishra, vice president, Research, Religare Broking, answers your queries.
Ajit Mishra, vice president, Research, Religare Broking, answers your queries.
Ajit Mishra, vice president, Research, Religare Broking, answers your queries.
With commodity markets remaining soft and uncertain, it is likely the money will flow into equity markets with strong upsides, such as India.
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